Last Week: 5-9
I probably should have wrote this yesterday to avoid trying to concentrate with a brutal headache and a tongue that feels like a towel. I need a big week this week to finish at or above .500 for the year. Week 17 is probably the 2nd toughest week to pick winners next to week 1. Some teams will be playing back-ups to rest stars for the playoffs and other teams maybe playing more rookies and fringe players to see what they have moving forward for next year. Good luck everybody and enjoy your hangovers.
Washington at Philly -9
Pick: Eagles -9, too little too late for the Eagles in a season where many big things were expected. The Eagles have won 3 straight and it looks like their maligned defence has started to click. I don’t love this pick, but gun to my head I pick the Eagles.
NYJ at Miami -3
Pick: Jets +3, this is a must win game for the Jets who need a whole bunch of things to fall their way in order to make the playoffs. This might also be the last shot for Sanchez to prove to the Jets brass that he should be the main man moving forward.
Carolina at New Orleans -7
Pick: Saints -7, the Saints still have something to play for and they need a win over the Panthers to get the 2nd seed in the NFC. The Saints are undefeated at home and undefeated ATS at home. That’s good enough for me.
Detroit -6.5 at Green Bay
Pick: Lions -6.5, the Packers are likely to rest most of their stars in this one. Tough to call though because Detroit will likely not want to show Green Bay too much as they may face each other again fairly soon in the playoffs.
San Francisco -12 at St. Louis
Pick: 49ers -12, the 49ers control their destiny for the 2nd seed in the NFC. With a win they get the bye. What worries me about this pick is that the 49ers get off to a huge lead and start resting starters for the playoffs allowing the Rams to get the backdoor cover.
Indy at Jacksonville -3
Pick: Colts +3, Indy’s covered their last 4 games including their last 2 games on the road. The public is on the Colts as this line was -5.
Buffalo at New England -10
Pick: Patriots -10, if the Pats win they clinch home field throughout the playoffs. It looks like Tom Brady will play in this game. This is also a revenge spot as the Pats look to avenge a September 25 loss in Buffalo.
Tennessee -1 at Houston
Pick: Titans -1, the Titans still have still have an outside shot at the playoffs, but that all won’t matter if they lose against Houston. The Texans have nothing to play for and are a banged up squad. They will likely rest their starters in this one.
Chicago at Minny -1.5
Pick: Bears +1.5, both teams playing for pride this week. The Bears are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 match ups against the Vikes…although the favourite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 match ups. Basically what I’m saying here is this is a pure guess and I’d rather stay away.
Tampa at Atlanta -9.5
Pick: Falcons -9.5, this line was -14 when it opened so you know where the public money is at. The Falcons are always tough at home and the Bucs have been awful on the road this year. The favourite is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams and Tampa just looks like a team that is utterly defeated and looking ahead to next year.
Pittsburgh -7 at Cleveland
Pick: Steelers -7, the Steelers could still win the AFC North and they could still get home field advantage throughout the playoffs. I’ll take the highly motivated Steelers over the dreadful home ATS record of the Browns (1-8-2 in their last 11 home games)
Baltimore -1.5 at Cincy
Pick: Bengals +1.5, I would probably stay away from this game and this pick is purely because it would be incredible to have the Bengals make the playoffs. They could still make the playoffs with an Oakland and NYJ loss, but a win and their in. Although the Ravens do have a lot to play for this week (AFC North title and also a shot a #1 seed). Shaping up to be a bruiser.
KC at Denver -1
Pick: Chiefs +1, I like what I’ve seen the last 2 weeks from the KC defence and Kyle Orton looks serviceable under centre as well. Tebow was awful last week in Buffalo and I think the Chiefs will be employing the same blanked type coverage the Bills did and force Tebow to throw into zone coverage. Two highly motivated teams in a hated rivalry game…in the end I like Orton sticking it to the team that dropped him and the KC defence picking off Tebow multiple times.
San Diego at Oakland -2.5
Pick: Raiders -2.5, the Chargers put up a stinker last week against the Lions ruining any hope for the playoffs. The Raiders need a win and some help to get to the playoffs. This one is tough to call though because San Diego is such a pain in the arse to bet on or against because they can be an elite team one week to a complete doormat the next week. Now I’m almost talking myself into picking the Chargers…ahh, I’ll just ride with Raidernation this week.
Seattle at Arizona -2.5
Pick: Cardinals -2.5, both teams are off disappointing losses last week that crushed any hopes for post season play. Both teams will be pushing to finish strong and end the year at .500. This is a tough one to call, but I like that the home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 match ups.
Dallas at NYG -3
Pick: Giants -3, what a way to end the season. Basically a playoff game with the winner getting the final ticket to the playoffs. The main reason I am going with the G-men is their front 4 on defence appears to be fully healthy and that spells trouble for Romo and his banged up throwing hand. This will be a fun game to watch and likely will come down to last score wins.