I was going to try my hand in a fancy full analysis of the game, but there are tons of those out there. If you want to read a good breakdown of the game, the latest issue of Sportsnet Magazine has a great one. Instead I’m going to predict the entire game. Not every play, but every big play and scoring play. If I get more than 15% right I’m quitting my job on Monday. Where applicable I’ll also comment on how my predictions match up with the juicy prop bets. Let’s do this thing!
The ever so exciting coin toss is the first action us degenerates will be betting on. My bet is the result will be tails and the Giants win the toss and elect to receive. Former American Idol winner Kelly Clarkson will be performing the national anthem. There are some ridiculous prop bets on her performance alone. I’m going to say she has her hair up, shows her belly, misses at least 1 word and sings the anthem in 1 min and 40 seconds.Here is the summary of my picks.
Giants win toss: -105
Clarkson hair up: +300
Clarkson showing her belly: +300
Clarkson misses at least one word: +250
Anthem over 94 seconds: -120
After winning the toss the Giants start on their 20 after an adrenaline fueled kickoff goes out of the end zone for a touchback. The Giants try to establish the run in their first possession and have some success with Ahmad Bradshaw carving up the Pats D for a few nice gains. The Giants cross the 50 in their first possession and get into field goal range with the use of some playaction passes to Victor Cruz. However, the first drive comes to a halt when the Pats D tightens and forces the Giants into a 38 yard field goal…which is good for a 3-0 lead. Abby Manning gets her first TV spot during this first drive as well and she looks nervous. The Giants kick off to the Pats and a nice return gives the Pats decent field position at their 30 yard line. The Pats eager to fight back come out firing with Tom Brady hitting on his first 4 passes. The Pats cross the 50 in their first possession and look poised to at least tie the game. However, a big sack by Jason Pierre-Paul knocks the Pats out of field goal range and forces a punt. The punt is fair caught at the 10 and the Giants have their 2nd crack at the Pats D. This time around the Pats D is ready for the power run game and stuff the Giants on the first 2 downs. The 3rd down passing play is incomplete and the Giants’ punt gives the Pats excellent field position near the 50. During the 2nd Pats possession, Gisele and Tom Brady’s son make their first appearance on TV. Shockingly the son is not wearing a Brady jersey, but instead is wearing a designer pea coat and driver’s cap. In their 2nd possession the Pats quickly get into the red zone and finish off the drive with a Brady to Hernandez TD off of play action. Extra point is good bringing the score to 7-3 Pats. On the Giants’ 3rd drive, Eli begins to air it out and hits Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham on several occasions bringing the Giants into Pats territory again. Brandon Jacobs makes his first appearance and gives a few bruising runs to run out the 1st quarter of play.
Related prop bets:
Opening kickoff is a touchback: -190
Giants cross 50 yard line first: -165
Will Eli throw a 1st quarter TD pass: no, -170
Total Sacks Jason Pierre-Paul: over 1/2 -210
Will Tom Brady throw a 1st quarter TD pass: yes, +130
Tom Brady’s first pass will be: complete, -200
Aaron Hernandez scoring first TD for Pats: 4/1
Giants score first: -125
Giants score or punt first: score,+105
First score of game is field goal: +150
First score of game is Giants field goal: +350
Field goal in 1st quarter: -125
First to appear on TV Abby Manning or Gisele: Abby Manning -120
Gisele on TV: over 1/2, -250
Brady’s son not wearing a Brady jersey: +130
The Giants continue their drive into the redone of the Pats. This time they are able to punch it in with a Hakeem Nicks goal-line fade route. Extra point is good making it a 10-7 game. The Pats next possession Brady marches the troops up the field with pin point passes to Wes Welker and Deion Branch. Ron Gronkowski remains reception-less at this point. Brady tries to get his big TE into the game by forcing a pass into double coverage which is picked off by Kenny Phillips. The Giants take over with outstanding field position. After a couple mediocre runs by Bradshaw the Giants are faced with 3rd and long near midfield. Eli returns the favour by trying to force his 3rd down pass into Victor Cruz and it’s picked off by Patrick Chung. The Pats take over near midfield. An unlikely player makes an impact on this drive as Ochocinco hauls in a huge catch on a deep post route bringing the Pats deep into Giants territory. After 2 failed attempts in the end zone to Gronkowski the Pats decide to lean on sure handed Wes Welker to punch it into the end zone to push the Pats back out in front 14-10. The teams go on to trade meaningless drives to end the half as both defences tighten and the score at the half is 14-10 Pats.
Related prop bets:
Eli Manning interceptions: over 1/2, -200
Eli Manning throws a TD before a Pick: -250
Hakeem Nicks scoring a TD: -115
Kenny Phillips INT: +400
Tom Brady interceptions: over 1/2, -165
Wes Welker scoring a TD: +105
Ochocinco receptions: over 1/2, -165
Player to get 1st interception: Kenny Phillips, 10/1
Hakeem Nicks scoring first TD for Giants: 7/2
Pats score last in 1st half: -115
Will both teams have lead in 1st half: yes, -105
Pats win 1st half by 4-6 points: 6/1
Madonna is the halftime entertainment this year and she blows the audience away singing Like a Prayer, Vogue, Hung Up and ending off with Like a Virgin. No nudity is shown.
The Pats get the ball first in the 2nd half. The Giants front four gets after Brady in this first drive sacking him twice, Justin Tuck and Pierre-Paul doing the damage. The Pats are forced to punt and Giants start with great field position. The Giants continue to pound the rock with Bradshaw and Jacobs. With the Pats bringing the safeties up to help with the run, Manning is able to hit Manningham on a go route for a monster gain inside the Pats 20. Bradshaw caps off the drive with a 6 yard scamper to push the Giants back in front 17-14. On the Pats next possession it is more of the same for the Giants front four who continue to get to Brady. The Pats yet again forced to punt. The Giants now full of confidence continue to move the ball by mixing up the run and pass play calls. Victor Cruz who has been relatively quiet so far is the star of this drive as he takes a relatively innocent looking quick slant route into a 35 yard touchdown play. The Giants build their lead to 24-14. The Pats on their next possession appear to have made adjustments up front and use Gronkowski as more of a blocker than route runner. This adjustment seems to kickstart Brady who is able to find targets with his new-found pocket time. Welker scores his 2nd TD of the game on a short crossing route to bring the score to 24-21 Giants. This sets up a nail-biting 4th quarter.
The Giants look to answer early in the 4th quarter, but are unable to score any points in their first 4th quarter possession and are forced to punt. The Pats with the momentum behind them continue to terrorize the Giants secondary with short, quick routes. Brady brings the Pats back into the red zone and the drive is capped off by the Law Firm muscling in for a short TD run. 28-24 Pats early in the 4th. The Giants with their 2nd possession of the 4th quarter start to make adjustments of their own and start to move the ball again. However, the drive is stymied by a 3rd down drop by Victor Cruz. The Giants are yet again forced to punt. The Pats take over with seven minutes and change left to go. The Pats begin to lean more on Woodhead and the Law Firm to eat some clock. A seemingly tired Giants D begins to get shoved around and the Pats running game eats up precious clock. With 3 minutes to go the Pats are over the 50 and are looking poised to score yet again…and then the fumble heard around the world occurs. The Pats having success with the Law Firm for most of the drive decide to get fancy and run the ball with TE Hernandez on a sweep. Jason Pierre-Paul who to this point was having a beast of a game is able to punch the ball out of Hernandez’s grasp and is also able to pounce on the ball for the turnover. With 2 and half minutes left and 2 time outs remaining Eli and the Giants have the chance to break the Pats hearts yet again. Not wanting to give Brady another chance with the ball, the Giants do not abandon the run. Bradshaw eclipses the 100 yard mark on this drive and at the 2 minute warning the Giants are just shy of midfield. After the 2 minute warning the Giants continue with the run game and continue to move the ball. After a play action pass to Victor Cruz the Giants are on the Pats 30 yard line with just over a minute remaining. Continuing with the hurry up offence against a tired Pats offence, Eli continues his hot play with another completion to Victor Cruz to get the Giants into the red zone. With 40 seconds remaining the Giants call a time out. After the time out the Giants go 4 wide and cross up the Pats with a draw play to Bradshaw. The play brings the Giants to the Pats 7 yard line. The Giants decide to forego their last time out and on the next play Eli hits Nicks in the back of the end zone to give the Giants the lead 31-28 with only 12 seconds remaining. The Pats are unable to pull off a miracle and Giants pull off the upset…again. Coughlin is showered with blue Gatorade and Hakeem Nicks is named Superbowl MVP and thanks God for the victory.
Related prop bets:
Colour of Gatorade dumped on coach: blue, +800
Hakeem Nicks MVP: +1200
MVP thanking God first: 4/1
Bradshaw score a TD: +110
Cruz score a TD: Even
Law firm score a TD: +120
Wow, typing this has got me so pumped for tomorrow. I have $50 on the Giants at +120 to win the game so here’s hoping at least I have that prediction right 🙂
Enjoy the game everyone!